West Asia is
a region full of twisted realities where the simplest of events can have the
most complex underpinnings. Speaking of complexities in the region, Iran is one
such country in the region whose sheer size and clout make it a prominent
regional power. Iran being a theocracy led by the Shi'ite clergy has religion entwined with
its politics. Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, from the American lens, Iran
has emerged as an untamed beast in the region with its own sense of purpose and
an independent worldview to decide its state policy independently. Unlike Saudi Arabia, Iran does not
align itself with the USA. Rather, Iran and USA share a relationship of
animosity since the revolution in 1979.
Multiple theories are proposed to explain the bitterness in
Iran-US relationship. However, none prove sufficient enough to accomplish the
arduous task of explaining the role of Iran in the region and its implications
for the stability in West Asia. Put in one sentence, Iran as a state has the
potential to become one true leading political actor in the region. Its brand
of Shiite Islam is very likely to spread if Iran is to have a free hand in the
region which comes as a point of caution to a majority of actors in the region. The
case in Iraq comes as a stark reminder when we talk about spreading the influence
of Iran’s brand of Islam in the region. In Iraq, the situation becomes especially
favorable for Iran because of Iraq being a Shiite majority and Iran’s significant
influence on Iraq through proxies and otherwise.
The Shi’i-Sunni sectarian divide in the Muslim world is significant
and it gains even greater prominence when a discussion comes to involve Iran.
Considering the sectarian divide, the other notable player in the game, Saudi Arabia,
as the standard-bearer of Sunni brand of Islam considers itself the one true
legitimate leader of the Muslim community. Having inherited the Arab lands and
the Arabic language, the Saudi claim for the seat of Global Muslim leadership
warrants merit. In addition to that, since the Arabs first revolted against the
Ottoman Empire in the First World War to support the cause of the allied forces,
they have secured some or other sort of an umbrella of protection from the West.
In the past, this role was played by the British who have now been replaced by
the Americans. It is worthy to note that the proximity with the west often
portrays Saudi Arabia as a client state of the west thus hampering its goal to gain
the leadership of the global community of Muslims or the Ummah.
However, the Saudi claim for the leadership of Global Muslim
leadership is not unquestioned. The contradictions within the Muslim world
become visible more often than not when it comes to the religious bodies like Organization
of Islamic cooperation and the Arab League. Often, the conflicting interests
among the Muslim nations come to the fore. The concept of Qaumiya (Muslim
community) and Wataniya (Nationalism) seem to be acting against each other.
However, none of these contrasts are as vehemently opposite to each other as
those between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran has the potential to rival the Saudi
claim of leading Muslim community worldwide and it has asserted its resolve to
do so. Iran’s military adventures resulting into the influence it has in Iraq
are no secret to the world. In addition to that, Iran has acquired a special
ability in conducting proxy warfare to de-stabilize its adversaries. Yemen is
the latest example in this regard. The war in Yemen is being fought on the
south-western borders of Saudi Arabia. The acts of violence have often seeped
into Saudi Arabia’s territory. In a recent attack by a missile, one of the
world’s largest oil-producing facilities in Saudi Arabia was hit. The strike
brought down its production capacity to half.
Having underlined the capabilities of Iran in asserting its
influence in the region, the role of Israel also demands a mention here. With an
overtly Pro-US foreign policy, Israel is often termed the client state of the
west in the region. Having an edge in technological capabilities, Israel has
displayed its military prowess in the 6-day war by defeating a combined force
of major Arab powers. The capabilities of Israel are relevant to the Iran-US
rivalry because if Iran gains an upper-hand in terms of power projection by
acquiring Nuclear weapons then the relative position of Israel and by that that
of US gets compromised.
Coming to the question of Iran’s nuclear program, it was
alleged by the USA that Iran was secretly developing WMD. However, a treaty
between Iran and the Permanent five members of the UNSC plus Germany was
arrived at in 2015. Under which all the nuclear facilities of Iran were to be
under constant surveillance from a team consisting of Bipartisan inspectors appointed
by IAEA. The agreement came to be known as
the JCPOA or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The agreement allowed Iran to
use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. However, the Republican
Presidential candidate Donald Trump made an announcement even before his
appointment to the white house about withdrawing the US from the agreement in
order to re-negotiate the deals of the agreement.
Living up to his promise, Trump finalized the US’ exit from
the deal unilaterally. Iran, having followed all the committed promises denied re-negotiation
of any sorts with the US. A war of words since then ensued between US and Iran.
The US went on to say that Iran was not complying with the terms of the
agreement and enriching Uranium beyond the permitted limit for peaceful use.
Citing the alleged no-compliance, the US administration put American sanctions
on Iran that put a stop its export of crude oil. Fearing a backlash from the
US, major importers of Crude from Iran looked at other options for their
oil-needs.
Unwilling to give up to the US pressure, Iran started projecting
its power in the strategically located strait of Hormuz. For the record, the
strait Hormuz is located is choke point and is only sea passage from the
Persian Gulf to the open ocean. World’s 20-30 % of oil passes through the Strait
of Hormuz. As such, approximately 80% of the oil leaving the Persian Gulf
passes through the Hormuz. Having its own export stopped, Iran decided to
thwart the exports of Iraq through the strait. Equipped with the wherewithal to
direct events in the strait, Iran deployed its naval vessels. One of the
British Oil tankers was actually sunk down that carried oil from Iraq. The fear
of global oil-supply created chaos as the situation around the area became
intense.
All these events led to further increasing animosity between
USA and Iran. The situation became so tense that Iran armed forces shot down a
Ukraine Passenger plane mistaking it for a US bomber. The whole situation has
still not settled completely with new red lines being drawn. US killed the
commander of the (IRGC) or Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps Major General
Suleimani in Iraq in targeted attack. The killing of the commander came as a
major blow to Iran. Following which, Iran vowed to avenge his death.
If Iran is to acquire a nuclear weapon, it cans
single-handedly change the balance of power in the region in its favor. However,
from the history of the development of nuclear weapon states we know if one power
goes nuclear it triggers a domino effect which makes it mandatory to follow the
suit or fall behind in the game of power projection. Iran’s increased influence
comes at the cost of US influence in the region. Thus, the bitterness in their
relationship is only natural. The US has a tough history in the region. The US
military adventurism in Iraq resulted into a worldwide denouncement of US
policy that resulted in further erosion of US credibility. Actions of Iran come
as a measure of caution. Looking at the recent history of Iraq, Iran takes each
of its steps with precaution. The lack of trust and a state of paranoia for
mutual actions have become a hallmark of US-Iran rivalry to which there seems
to be no end in near future.
Comments